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View Full Version : Anyone disagree that it's over?



davec
10-08-2008, 11:08 PM
Of course, this is barring some kind of major event that could swing the election (Al Qaeda with a major attack two days before the election, Obama caught having sex with Kim Kardashian, etc...)

But I think it's over. McCain has yet to get a lead in this election, with the exception of a couple of polls right after the GOP convention. Palin is a joke. We've gone through 3 debates, and Obama/Biden have been percieved as the winners by a big margin. All the Kerry '04 states are in Obama's pocket according to polls, and there's a ton of Bush '04 states that are "toss ups" and leaning Obama, including Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, and Nevada.

And, the economy has gone FULLY into the shitter.

If the election is held today, Obama wins in a landslide. It's in 27 days, with only one debate left. McCain's going to pull the traditional tricks, he's going to call Obama a traitor, a liar, a secret terrorist. But it hasn't worked so far.

These debates have done what I predicted they'd do, which is show a tall, handsome, calm, healthy Obama vs. a crippled, old, awkward McCain. Lots of people (especially "undecided moderates") vote not on the issues, but on biological prefrence. They vote for the chief who seems like he'd kill the most bison. That's Obama, and that's probably why he's winning these boring-ass debates.

I think it's over. McCain lost. What do you think?

Secondarily, what is the collapsing economy going to do to the GOP in congress? Any Republican incumbent in a close race has probably lost 2-5 points in the last two weeks.

Scol
10-08-2008, 11:16 PM
It looks very good for Obama and the dems, but I wouldn't say that it's over. They're going to open the dirty bag of dirty tricks, and pull out all sorts of evil. Plus, don't underestimate American ignorance and racism. I would also take any poll witha grain of salt.

But yes, it does look good. Hope is alive.

Telfer
10-08-2008, 11:18 PM
They call it "October Surprise (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise)".

I don't like to get too comfortable.

Steev
10-09-2008, 02:24 AM
Yeah, I think the Republican party can't be as stupid as they've appeared these last few months. Something's up.

Former Hoosier
10-09-2008, 02:42 AM
A week is forever in politics.

millerjake30
10-09-2008, 03:10 AM
There's too much we don't know.

rdolan
10-09-2008, 05:11 AM
For the past couple of weeks, I've developed this theory. McCain vs. Obama is like the Oakland Raiders vs. the Kansas City Chiefs during the Marty Schottenheimer era. They played twice a year for ten years. Marty's Chiefs went 17-3.

Marty always put a lot of emphasis on the Raiders match-up. He had a personal vendetta against them that he never talked about. The week preceding the game was always known as "Raider" week. He also had a theory about how to beat the Raiders. You run the ball, and play defense and keep yourself in the game. You did that, and no matter what, the Raiders would find a way to beat themselves: turnover, stupid penalties, etc. His record says it all. 17-3.

That's what this election is like. Obama is Marty's Chiefs. Everyone wants them to go for the knock out blow, but they know they're gonna win if they stick to their superior ground game, because they know McCain/Palin will keep making false starts and throwing into double coverage...or go negative, but get their ass kicked by daily headlines about how bad the the economy is.

Other parallels. Al Davis is awful about bringing in players and coaches worth a damn and then doesn't let them do their jobs. John McCain made Sarah Palin his v.p. pick and doesn't let her talk to the press.

John McCain=Al Davis' Raiders. Obama=Marty Schottenheimer's Chiefs.

Atrain
10-09-2008, 05:35 AM
I just liken them all to the Bears.
Dissappointing.

millerjake30
10-09-2008, 08:29 AM
For the past couple of weeks, I've developed this theory. McCain vs. Obama is like the Oakland Raiders vs. the Kansas City Chiefs during the Marty Schottenheimer era. They played twice a year for ten years. Marty's Chiefs went 17-3.

Marty always put a lot of emphasis on the Raiders match-up. He had a personal vendetta against them that he never talked about. The week preceding the game was always known as "Raider" week. He also had a theory about how to beat the Raiders. You run the ball, and play defense and keep yourself in the game. You did that, and no matter what, the Raiders would find a way to beat themselves: turnover, stupid penalties, etc. His record says it all. 17-3.

That's what this election is like. Obama is Marty's Chiefs. Everyone wants them to go for the knock out blow, but they know they're gonna win if they stick to their superior ground game, because they know McCain/Palin will keep making false starts and throwing into double coverage...or go negative, but get their ass kicked by daily headlines about how bad the the economy is.

Other parallels. Al Davis is awful about bringing in players and coaches worth a damn and then doesn't let them do their jobs. John McCain made Sarah Palin his v.p. pick and doesn't let her talk to the press.

John McCain=Al Davis' Raiders. Obama=Marty Schottenheimer's Chiefs.

And those three games when the Raiders won? I suppose it was while Marty kept his nose to the grind and stuck with the way he'd been doing things, the Raiders...the more desperate team found a way to sneak in, get a take-away or two and steal it just before the buzzer?

hixx
10-09-2008, 02:58 PM
Oh my god, a month seems like a year away.

Dave, you're scaring me with your predictions of Obama winning it.

I will not release my breath until a fully alive Obama takes his damn oath.

Until then, I am assuming nothing. Anything could happen these next few weeks, anything.

And would someone please tell me to stop reading right wing material? I get so mad its not worth it, but I can't stop, right wing heroin.

Hixx

Schoolyj
10-09-2008, 04:08 PM
Yeah - I'm reluctant to count chickens, but the current race is similar to Obama's campaign against Hilary: he's got a small but significant lead, opinion is tilting his way, and the negative attacks of his opponent are being called out "desperation" tactics.

I'm not sure what kind of October Surprise could change things at this point. Even another terrorist attack in the U.S. might not really help the Republicans. They've exhausted a lot of cred with the War on Terror, so much so that an attack might completely discredit their claim on being the strongmen. Obama has made it clear where he stands on taking down al Queda, so it could even help him. Though that kind of speculation makes me gag a little.

Reading the wiki that Dan posted, it struck me that the surprises noted didn't really tip an election that heavily. Outside of the 2004 Suadi oil support, most of them really just reinforced a trend ('68, '72, & 80) or had no effect ('92, '00).

rdolan
10-09-2008, 06:00 PM
And those three games when the Raiders won? I suppose it was while Marty kept his nose to the grind and stuck with the way he'd been doing things, the Raiders...the more desperate team found a way to sneak in, get a take-away or two and steal it just before the buzzer?

The first Chiefs' loss was in Marty's first year in 1989.
The Chiefs neither had a good ground game (78 yards) and they turned the ball over four times to the Raiders two. The Raiders had a running back named Bo Jackson, who helped them gain 157 yards on the ground. (This was also the Oakland team that fired Mike Shanahan in the middle of the season and replaced him with Art Shell.) The Chiefs had 21 more penalty yards than the Raiders.

The second Chiefs loss came in 1992. Again, the Chiefs gained only 17 yards on the ground after falling behind 21-0. They also had two turnovers, and the Raiders only had 3 more penalty yards.

The third and final Chiefs loss to the Raiders was in 1996. The Chiefs were 9-4, and dropped the last three of the year. (Partly because they stuck with Steve Bono instead of going with Rich Gannon.)

In this game, the Chiefs fell behind 26-0. Had 96 penalty yards to the Raiders 39. And had a -1 turnover ratio, and had only 98 yards rushing to the Raiders 170.

Typical Chiefs victory would be the November 1993 game at Oakland.
Chiefs rushed for 164 yards vs Raiders 102 yards.
The Chiefs had twice as many penalty yards, but had a +1 TO ratio.
(Dave Krieg as the Chiefs QB and Jeff Hostetler was the Raiders QB...which is just weird.)

davec
10-09-2008, 10:50 PM
Yeah - I'm reluctant to count chickens, but the current race is similar to Obama's campaign against Hilary: he's got a small but significant lead, opinion is tilting his way, and the negative attacks of his opponent are being called out "desperation" tactics.


Except it's not a small lead. In the Gallup tracking poll yesterday, he was winning by 11 points. Real Clear politics has him at 277, with leaning and solid states (that's a victory right there) and leading in every other swing state except for Missouri. If the election was held today, it would be Obama in a landslide.

Also, the Dow is crashing daily - we're not just staring at a recession, we're staring at a depression right now. McCain has lost all the debates, Palin is a joke and not talking to anyone not named Hannity for the rest of the election, and the only categories McCain won in the last debate was "most negative" and "most typical politician."

Obama's raking in the money. And as George Will just pointed out, he's about to get his best political mailing as people get their third quarter 401k reports. They're going to see how much money they've lost in the last several months.

Things are going to Hell in a handbasket, and the GOP is going to be held accountable for it. It's over.

Unless the GOP really pulls all the strings behind the scenes right now, in which case, nothing matters because they're going to win every election for the rest of time.

Schoolyj
10-09-2008, 11:17 PM
Things are going to Hell in a handbasket, and the GOP is going to be held accountable for it. It's over.

Yeah - it's over, but it's also not over. Like the Hilary-Obama campaign there is going to be a long "it's not over, yet" story line and there a (dwindling) electoral possibilities wherein McCain can sneak in. There are already stories alleging voter fraud by Obama freindly voter registration groups like Acorn and there will probably be some court challenges by the GOP.

A Democratic landslide would be awesome, and I think you're right to suggest that people start thinking about donating to close Senate races.

But McCain will flog the shit out of this Ayers thing, and Obama doesn't have a convincing answer for it and he can't say what I (and probably he thinks) which is: "fuck you, Ayers has done more for the good of his community since he came out of hiding than you do with your self-righteous demgougery."

ETA - Maybe I'm sublimating my Cubs angst, but I'm reluctant to go all in on this yet.

davec
10-09-2008, 11:31 PM
But McCain will flog the shit out of this Ayers thing, and Obama doesn't have a convincing answer for it and he can't say what I (and probably he thinks) which is: "fuck you, Ayers has done more for the good of his community since he came out of hiding than you do with your self-righteous demgougery."

Ayers is not a problem. The thing Hillary did to help Obama was slam him hard for the duration of the primaries after she'd already lost. Ayers, Wright, Rezco, etc... We've heard it all before. It's old news.

Bill Clinton doesn't lose popularity over Monica Lewinsky anymore. People have made their minds up about it already. Ayers isn't a new revelation - people have already made up their minds about it. And McCain is desperate and commiting gaffes on a nearly daily basis.

Sure, these attacks might bring things a little bit closer. But McCain will lose the next debate. McCain is running low on funds. Obama has already surpassed 270 electoral votes in the polling and is leading in major swing states. He's winning in Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. He wins Ohio, it's over. He wins Florida, over. Virginia, over.

You think old people in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania are going to vote for McCain as their retirement falls in the shitter? They're losing their distaste for voting for a young black guy.

Over. Obama's won.

Schoolyj
10-09-2008, 11:37 PM
Over. Obama's won.

I'm not saying he isn't. I'm just saying chill out about it. Let's not start doing the Dirty Bird in the end zone, feel me cuz?

Just play it cool and start some back-channel communications with Funkadelic for the innaugural.

Biddle
10-10-2008, 12:08 AM
I'm not saying he isn't. I'm just saying chill out about it. Let's not start doing the Dirty Bird in the end zone, feel me cuz?

Just play it cool and start some back-channel communications with Funkadelic for the innaugural.

"Doing the Dirty Bird in the end zone" made me laugh out loud at work. That's my new euphamism for anal sex now. Believe it!

I WANT Funkadelic to play at the innaugural ball. After the shit that every red-faced, anneurism-courting red-neck has thrown at the man, I WANT him to rub a little gratuitous "black"itude in their faces, once he takes the office. Not for long. Just at the innaugural ball and have them really start to sweat it a little bit, like "Oh Shit! I knew he was a black guy!"

God, I want that to happen.

Too bad reality doesn't have my sense of humor.

Cheers,
COB

stevescholz
10-10-2008, 01:26 AM
Things are going to Hell in a handbasket, and the GOP is going to be held accountable for it. It's over.

Dave,

To make this reality stick, let's all help get out the vote.

Because until the votes are all in, all these polls are snapshots that just look cool.

Until the votes are all in, we can't say that economic uncertainty will guarantee a Democratic sweep. Or the anger toward the GOP.

Until the votes are all in, McCain could surge in the polls or fall out of sight or take his campaign to the moon. Same with Obama. Personally I think Obama's got the lunar vote wrapped up, but I won't know....

Until the votes are all in.

Let's make this a celebration. Let's get everyone we know to the polls. Call our family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, team members, everyone. Let's show this democracy that we understand what it means to declare our preference. Sounds basic, I know. I just want it to work this time.

And so I will work. Until the votes are all in.

nhoj
10-10-2008, 07:06 PM
My chickens are tallied. And by chickens I mean electoral votes. And by counted I mean BO gets an impressive 369 with a +/- of 13.5. Either way, he's getting the most electoral votes since Clinton/Gore 96. He'd have to eat a baby on the front steps of the Lincoln Memorial to lose.

Republican dirty tricks can work in a tight race. This is ceasing to be a tight race. They would have to commit large-scale voter fraud or other--and get away with it--in at the very least Florida + Ohio + Missouri + North Carolina + Virginia to steal/ensure those states just to get within 20 electoral votes. And they're slipping fast in all but Missouri on that list.

realclearpolitics.com has Obama with 277 sure-fire electoral votes, without winning any of the states currently classified as 'battlgrounds'. That's enough to win. He has his biggest margin in the polls yet, with the exception of his post-convention bump. He's distancing himself steadily and is pulling away. Could he blow it? Yep. Will he? Nope. Count them chickens I say.

Fenstermaker
10-10-2008, 09:43 PM
This is an interesting read (and if you read fivethirtyeight.com, you've probably already seen it):

The Race Isn't Necessarily Over for Barack Obama and John McCain (http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/10/9/the-race-isnt-necessarily-over-for-barack-obama-and-john-mccain.html) by Michael Barone

And fivethirtyeight's response:
An Invitation to Michael Barone (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/invitation-to-michael-barone.html)


This guy Barone really thinks that voters aren't going to turn out (especially young voters.) I have faith in the young'uns, but to second stevescholz - let's get everyone we know to the polls.

jimfath
10-13-2008, 06:32 PM
For one of many reasons I can't count out McCain, please see what movie, in limited release, came in 8th at the box office nationally this past week. It's people that flock to that movie that scare me the most.

Box Office Charts (http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/boxoffice/)

Although #10 gives me hope that there might be some kind of balance, though I think there isn't much of it.

Schoolyj
10-13-2008, 06:57 PM
For one of many reasons I can't count out McCain, please see what movie, in limited release, came in 8th at the box office nationally this past week. It's people that flock to that movie that scare me the most.

You're scared of the fans of Fireproof? :):p

"At work, inside burning buildings, Capt. Caleb Holt lives by the old firefighter's adage: Never leave your partner behind. At home, in the cooling embers of his marriage, he lives by his own rules."

speedymarie
10-13-2008, 07:32 PM
Actually, I think it's the fact that Beverly Hills Chihuahua came in first that scares me the most about this country.

Really, Religulous was in a third as many theaters as An American Carol, and made only $200,000 less? I think THAT is pretty damn good.

jimfath
10-13-2008, 08:30 PM
You're scared of the fans of Fireproof? :):p

"At work, inside burning buildings, Capt. Caleb Holt lives by the old firefighter's adage: Never leave your partner behind. At home, in the cooling embers of his marriage, he lives by his own rules."

There is an initiative amongst churches and Christian organizations to go out and support this movie. It's vaguly christian at best but it was made by the producers of the "Left Behind" series and those movies are Fucking Nuts. While the movie isn't "Crazy Jesus Time Jamboree", After watching several Christian end times movies this summer I see "Fireproof" as a wolf in sheep's clothing. If people can turn out for movies that are vaguely Christian and provide bonefide commercial success, Hollywood will be eager to back more of their brand of movies. I just assume that they are going to blow their wad at that point and have some really shitty Christian movie but I guess I'm just paranoid anytime the Christian Right treads in Mainstream territory. Passion of the Christ made me nervous too. It was box office gold and it was a glorified snuff film based on an inflammatory play from middle ages.

I guess I worry that people are going to get caught up in the Jesus web. I'm very sick of the Religious right and what's it's done to the country

Schoolyj
10-13-2008, 09:35 PM
There is an initiative amongst churches and Christian organizations to go out and support this movie. It's vaguly christian at best but it was made by the producers of the "Left Behind" series and those movies are Fucking Nuts.

Seriously? I did not know that. I thought you meant to say you were scared by how well American Carol did. (#9 at the box office this weekend)

http://www.americancarol.com/

This is a turd of a right-wing spoof by the Airplane guy.

I thought Fireproof was just some crappy movie I'd never heard.