Super Tuesday Predictions

[mrandy]

1. Alabama - Obama 54 Clinton 44 - Huckabee 41 McCain 29 Romney 17 Paul 6

2. Alaska - Clinton 51 Obama 49 - McCain 51 Paul 21 Romney 18 Huckabee 8

3. Arizona - Clinton 58 Obama 40 - McCain 50 Romney 29 Paul 11 Huckabee 10

4. Arkansas - Clinton 52 Obama 46 - Huckabee 40 Romney 29 McCain 27 Paul 4

5. California - Obama 51 Clinton 49 - McCain 38 Romney 37 Huckabee 11 Paul 8

6. Colorado - Obama 52 Clinton 47 - Romney 39 McCain 30 Paul 19 Huckabee 8

7. Connecticut Clinton 57 Obama 40 - Romney 40 McCain 39 Paul 7 Huckabee 6

8. Delaware Clinton 53 Obama 46 - Romney 36 McCain 30 Paul 10 Huckabee 10

9. Georgia Obama 56 Clinton 40 - Huckabee 38 McCain 30 Paul 12 Romney 11

10. Idaho Obama 58 Clinton 40 D only

11. Illinois Obama 66 Clinton 30 - McCain 41 Romney 30 Paul 18 Huckabee 11

12. Kansas Clinton 51 - Obama 49

13. Mass. Clinton 53 - Obama 46 - Romney 37 McCain 34 Huckabee 15 Paul 8

14. Minnesota - Clinton 55 Obama 44 - McCain 41 Huckabee 25 Romney 15 Paul 14

15. Missouri - Obama 56 Clinton 42 - McCain 35 Huckabee 33 Romney 20 Paul 9

16. Montana - Romney 28 McCain 25 Paul 24 Huckabee 15

17. New Jersey - Clinton 58 - Obama 40 - Romney 36 McCain 35 Huckabee 20 Paul 5

18. New Mexico - Clinton 53 Obama 46

19. New York - Clinton 54 Obama 45 - McCain 39 Romney 30 Huckabee 12 Paul 11

20. North Dakota - Obama 57 Clinton 43 - McCain 48 Paul 22 Huckabee 20 Romney 10

21. Oklahoma - Clinton 52 Obama 48 - McCain 31 Huckabee 28 Romney 26 Paul 13

22. Tennessee - Obama 54 Clinton 45 - Huckabee 36 McCain 31 Romney 25 Paul 8

23. Utah - Obama 56 Clinton 40 - Romney 58 Huckabee 23 McCain 13 Paul 6

24. West Virginia - Huckabee 38 McCain 30 Paul 19 Romney 12

Everything remains completely up in the air with this. And maybe Tucker Carlson gets a grown up haircut.

[jrrtubbs]

I predict that people will vote for other people and that Biggest Loser will be interupted numerous times.

[mrandy]

Here are my VP's as well

McCain / Governor Crist of FL
Romney / Condy Rice
Huckabee / Tom Ridge
Paul / The Ghost of Ludwig von Mises

Clinton / Bill Richardson
Obama / Al Gore

[robbersean]

I saw two polls today for California- one showed Clinton leading Obama by 10 points, the other showed Obama leading Clinton by 15.

Ah, polling.

I want Ron Paul to run with Dennis Kucinich as his running mate.

[schaefe]

California probably won't be really decided until sometime tomorrow...still, for all intents and purposes, it was a split decision between Obama and Clinton. Clinton got an edge in delegates, but not by a very large margin...the Democratic Convention should be very, very interesting this year. I wonder what the backroom deal will end up being?

I think Romney is gonna have to hang it up after tonight...dude got schooled.

[proxy]

So...who's winning now?

[Crescent]

Yeah I feel dumb asking this but when will we know?

[proxy]

Yeah I feel dumb asking this but when will we know?

Lord, thank heavens that I'm not the only one.

[RonK]

On the Republican side McCain is the front runner for the nomination right now.

On the Democratic side, it's still kind of a toss up between Clinton & Obama...which if it continues should make for an interesting Dem . Convention to say the least.

[proxy]

I can see it now...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=N_EecwRuhBA

[Crescent]

right but...so...they will remain tied until the presidential election? I just want to know when I will know if it's Hillary or my boyfriend.

[RonK]

No, there are still primaries to go before the Dem. Convention.

It's at the convention that the party names its candidate.

After each of the conventions, then you have the 2 candidates who go to the Presidential elections in Nov. (plus Ross Perot types)

[Crescent]

No, there are still primaries to go before the Dem. Convention.

It's at the convention that the party names its candidate.

After each of the conventions, then you have the 2 candidates who go to the Presidential elections in Nov. (plus Ross Perot types)

Ohhhh right. I swear I sort of knew all that. I'm just anxious.

[RonK]

Well, Romney just threw in the towel, so that means McCain is for all intents and purposes the Republican candidate for Prez.

*Ann Coulters head explodes*

[hixx]

Its possible that we might not know who it is, Hillary or Obama, until the convention too right?

if I have to wait until August, I'm going to poop myself.


Hixx

[speedymarie]

On the Republican side McCain is the front runner for the nomination right now.

On the Democratic side, it's still kind of a toss up between Clinton & Obama...which if it continues should make for an interesting Dem . Convention to say the least.

The problem on the Democratic side are the Superdelgates.

Dems have two kinds of delegates - pledged, and super.

Pledged delegates are the ones that you vote for in your state elections. They're basically like the electoral college, except they are proportionate instead of winner-takes-all. (If you didn't vote, the ballot has you vote for a candidate, but you also have to vote for delegates in your district, who have pledged to vote for a certain candidate.) Pledged delegates are divided up per district based on the proportion of votes for each candidate in that district. So, it's not Illinois went 60% for Obama, so Obama gets 60% of the delegates - it's actually decided district by district, so it will be a little more or a little less than 60 %.

Currently, Obama leads in pledged delegates, 635-630 (out of a possible 3252).

However, there are almost 800 "superdelegates" (almost 40% of total delegates) - these are Congressmen, Senators, Governors, past Presidents, and other Democratic party bigwigs. They are officially "unpledged" until the convention, but free to pledge themselves to a candidate before the convention, if they wish.

So far, of the 797, 193 have pledged to Clinton and 106 to Obama.

A total of 2025 delegates (combined pledged and super) are needed to win the nomination. Clinton has a total of 823 and Obama a total of 741.

In a race this close, the superdelegates make a huge difference. There are almost 500 still unpledged. Once the primaries are over, they can look and decide who they want to vote for at the Nominating Convention, and possibly, change the outcome.

Essentially, the democratic members of Congress CAN OVERRIDE THE VOTE OF THE PEOPLE, and nominate someone that didn't win the majority in the primaries.

Why is this the case? The party boss system of nominations was revised to the delegate system in the 1960s. People came out in droves in 1972 to nominate McGovern, who got trounced by Nixon. So the Democratic Party decided not to let the will of the people get too out of control, and created the superdelegate system, to prevent us from nominating someone "unelectable".

So the question becomes, can a non-establishment candidate even get the Democratic nomination? Who are our superdelegates going to pick?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/

http://www.americablog.com/2008/01/members-of-congress-and-governors-could.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18277678/

[Chip]

How weird would it be if the conclusion of the West Wig series ended up being prophetic and the convention actually did matter?

-Chip